The work presented here is part of the socioeconomic analysis that is carried out within the RADOST project. It has been the starting point of developing a dynamic regionalized Input-Output (IO) model that is used to assess the effects of climate change and adaptation strategies on the regional economy. In a first step the model has been set up for the tourist sector in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The possible developments of the tourism demand – influenced by climate change and other factors – were represented in three scenarios, which in turn were used as input data for the IO model.
Information about possible changes of extreme wave heights are essential for the future safe design of coastal and flood protection structures likes dykes, flood protection dunes, revetments etc. In this study, scenarios of regional climate change up to 2100 are used for the evaluation of changes of wave conditions. Analyses on calculated significant wave heights derived from extreme value statistics are showing a different signal of change for the selected locations along the German Baltic Sea Coast. The results are showing that extreme wave heights with a return level of 200 years can increase up to +14%. But also a decrease of down to -14% were found compared to actual conditions, depending on the location and climate change scenario applied. At the location of Warnemünde a slight increasing trend for the change of extreme wave heights could be found for 3 of 4 scenario runs with a maximum increase of +7%.